Polygenic scores for longitudinal prediction of incident type 2 diabetes in an ancestrally and medically diverse primary care physician network: a patient cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic scores (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. METHODS: We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and family history of T2D; (3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; and (4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. RESULTS: PGS was associated with incident T2D in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of the top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk ((PGS-CRS interaction p = 0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Polygenic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in African Americans.

African Americans (AAs) have been underrepresented in polygenic risk score (PRS) studies. Herein, we integrated genome-wide data from multiple observational studies on type 2 diabetes (T2D), encompassing a total of 101,987 AAs, to train and optimize an AA focused T2D PRS (PRSAA), using a Bayesian polygenic modeling method (PRS-CS). We further tested the score in three independent studies with a total of 7,275 AAs. We then compared the PRSAA to other published scores. Results show that a 1 standard deviation increase in the PRSAA was associated with 40%-60% increase in the odds of T2D (OR=1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.88; OR=1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.70; and OR=1.45, 95% CI 1.30-1.62) across three testing cohorts. These models captured 1.0%-2.6% of the variance (R2) in T2D on the liability scale. The positive predictive values (PPV) for three calculated score thresholds (the top 2%, 5% 10%) ranged from 14% to 35%. The PRSAA, in general, performed similarly to existing T2D PRS. Larger datasets remain needed to continue to evaluate the utility of within-ancestry scores in the AA population.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Development of Portable Electronic Health Record Based Algorithms to Identify Individuals with Diabetic Retinopathy.

Objectives: To develop, validate and implement algorithms to identify diabetic retinopathy (DR) cases and controls from electronic health care records (EHR)s. Methods : We developed and validated EHR-based algorithms to identify DR cases and individuals with type I or II diabetes without DR (controls) in three independent EHR systems: Vanderbilt University Medical Center Synthetic Derivative (VUMC), the VA Northeast Ohio Healthcare System (VANEOHS), and Massachusetts General Brigham (MGB). Cases were required to meet one of three criteria: 1) two or more dates with any DR ICD-9/10 code documented in the EHR, or 2) at least one affirmative health-factor or EPIC code for DR along with an ICD9/10 code for DR on a different day, or 3) at least one ICD-9/10 code for any DR occurring within 24 hours of an ophthalmology exam. Criteria for controls included affirmative evidence for diabetes as well as an ophthalmology exam. Results: The algorithms, developed and evaluated in VUMC through manual chart review, resulted in a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.93 for cases and negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.97 for controls. Implementation of algorithms yielded similar metrics in VANEOHS (PPV=0.94; NPV=0.86) and lower in MGB (PPV=0.84; NPV=0.76). In comparison, use of DR definition as implemented in Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) in VUMC, yielded similar PPV (0.92) but substantially reduced NPV (0.48). Implementation of the algorithms to the Million Veteran Program identified over 62,000 DR cases with genetic data including 14,549 African Americans and 6,209 Hispanics with DR. Conclusions/Discussion: We demonstrate the robustness of the algorithms at three separate health-care centers, with a minimum PPV of 0.84 and substantially improved NPV than existing high-throughput methods. We strongly encourage independent validation and incorporation of features unique to each EHR to enhance algorithm performance for DR cases and controls.

Multi-tissue epigenetic analysis identifies distinct associations underlying insulin resistance and Alzheimer's disease at CPT1A locus.

BACKGROUND: Insulin resistance (IR) is a major risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. The mechanisms by which IR predisposes to AD are not well-understood. Epigenetic studies may help identify molecular signatures of IR associated with AD, thus improving our understanding of the biological and regulatory mechanisms linking IR and AD. METHODS: We conducted an epigenome-wide association study of IR, quantified using the homeostatic model assessment of IR (HOMA-IR) and adjusted for body mass index, in 3,167 participants from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) without type 2 diabetes at the time of blood draw used for methylation measurement. We identified DNA methylation markers associated with IR at the genome-wide level accounting for multiple testing (P < 1.1 × 10-7) and evaluated their association with neurological traits in participants from the FHS (N = 3040) and the Religious Orders Study/Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP, N = 707). DNA methylation profiles were measured in blood (FHS) or dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (ROSMAP) using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Linear regressions (ROSMAP) or mixed-effects models accounting for familial relatedness (FHS) adjusted for age, sex, cohort, self-reported race, batch, and cell type proportions were used to assess associations between DNA methylation and neurological traits accounting for multiple testing. RESULTS: We confirmed the strong association of blood DNA methylation with IR at three loci (cg17901584-DHCR24, cg17058475-CPT1A, cg00574958-CPT1A, and cg06500161-ABCG1). In FHS, higher levels of blood DNA methylation at cg00574958 and cg17058475 were both associated with lower IR (P = 2.4 × 10-11 and P = 9.0 × 10-8), larger total brain volumes (P = 0.03 and P = 9.7 × 10-4), and smaller log lateral ventricular volumes (P = 0.07 and P = 0.03). In ROSMAP, higher levels of brain DNA methylation at the same two CPT1A markers were associated with greater risk of cognitive impairment (P = 0.005 and P = 0.02) and higher AD-related indices (CERAD score: P = 5 × 10-4 and 0.001; Braak stage: P = 0.004 and P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest potentially distinct epigenetic regulatory mechanisms between peripheral blood and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex tissues underlying IR and AD at CPT1A locus.

A Type 1 Diabetes Polygenic Score Is Not Associated With Prevalent Type 2 Diabetes in Large Population Studies.

Context: Both type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have significant genetic contributions to risk and understanding their overlap can offer clinical insight. Objective: We examined whether a T1D polygenic score (PS) was associated with a diagnosis of T2D in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium. Methods: We constructed a T1D PS using 79 known single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with T1D risk. We analyzed 13 792 T2D cases and 14 169 controls from CHARGE cohorts to determine the association between the T1D PS and T2D prevalence. We validated findings in an independent sample of 2256 T2D cases and 27 052 controls from the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGB Biobank). As secondary analyses in 5228 T2D cases from CHARGE, we used multivariable regression models to assess the association of the T1D PS with clinical outcomes associated with T1D. Results: The T1D PS was not associated with T2D both in CHARGE (P = .15) and in the MGB Biobank (P = .87). The partitioned human leukocyte antigens only PS was associated with T2D in CHARGE (OR 1.02 per 1 SD increase in PS, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, P = .006) but not in the MGB Biobank. The T1D PS was weakly associated with insulin use (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.001-1.012, P = .03) in CHARGE T2D cases but not with other outcomes. Conclusion: In large biobank samples, a common variant PS for T1D was not consistently associated with prevalent T2D. However, possible heterogeneity in T2D cannot be ruled out and future studies are needed do subphenotyping.

Precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation and progression suggests that precision medicine interventions could improve clinical outcomes. We undertook a systematic review to determine whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes were associated with high quality evidence, reproducible results and improved outcomes for patients. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase for publications that used 'simple subclassification' approaches using simple categorisation of clinical characteristics, or 'complex subclassification' approaches which used machine learning or 'omics approaches in people with established type 2 diabetes. We excluded other diabetes subtypes and those predicting incident type 2 diabetes. We assessed quality, reproducibility and clinical relevance of extracted full-text articles and qualitatively synthesised a summary of subclassification approaches. RESULTS: Here we show data from 51 studies that demonstrate many simple stratification approaches, but none have been replicated and many are not associated with meaningful clinical outcomes. Complex stratification was reviewed in 62 studies and produced reproducible subtypes of type 2 diabetes that are associated with outcomes. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into clinically meaningful subtypes. CONCLUSION: Critical next steps toward clinical implementation are to test whether subtypes exist in more diverse ancestries and whether tailoring interventions to subtypes will improve outcomes.

In people with type 2 diabetes there may be differences in the way people present, including for example, their symptoms, body weight or how much insulin they make. We looked at recent publications describing research in this area to see whether it is possible to separate people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and, if so, whether these groupings were useful for patients. We found that it is possible to group people with type 2 diabetes into different subgroups and being in one subgroup can be more strongly linked to the likelihood of developing complications over others. This might mean that in the future we can treat people in different subgroups differently in ways that improves their treatment and their health but it requires further study.

Polygenic Scores for Longitudinal Prediction of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in an Ancestrally and Medically Diverse Primary Care Network.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic score (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): 1) age and sex, 2) age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and family history of diabetes; 3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; 4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. RESULTS: PGS was associated with incident diabetes in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk [(PGS-CRS interaction p =0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)]. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Prognostic value of insulin resistance and hyperglycemia biomarkers for long-term risks of cardiometabolic outcomes.

We found that individuals in the top tertile of HOMA-IR and with HbA1c-defined prediabetes have elevated risk of cardiometabolic outcomes.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Systematic review of precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes.

Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation, progression and treatment has the potential for precision medicine interventions that can enhance care and outcomes for affected individuals. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes are associated with improved clinical outcomes, show reproducibility and have high quality evidence. We reviewed publications that deployed 'simple subclassification' using clinical features, biomarkers, imaging or other routinely available parameters or 'complex subclassification' approaches that used machine learning and/or genomic data. We found that simple stratification approaches, for example, stratification based on age, body mass index or lipid profiles, had been widely used, but no strategy had been replicated and many lacked association with meaningful outcomes. Complex stratification using clustering of simple clinical data with and without genetic data did show reproducible subtypes of diabetes that had been associated with outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and/or mortality. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into meaningful groups. More studies are needed to test these subclassifications in more diverse ancestries and prove that they are amenable to interventions.

Genetic Effect on Body Mass Index and Cardiovascular Disease Across Generations.

BACKGROUND: Whether genetics contribute to the rising prevalence of obesity or its cardiovascular consequences in today's obesogenic environment remains unclear. We sought to determine whether the effects of a higher aggregate genetic burden of obesity risk on body mass index (BMI) or cardiovascular disease (CVD) differed by birth year. METHODS: We split the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) into 4 equally sized birth cohorts (birth year before 1932, 1932 to 1946, 1947 to 1959, and after 1960). We modeled a genetic predisposition to obesity using an additive genetic risk score (GRS) of 941 BMI-associated variants and tested for GRS-birth year interaction on log-BMI (outcome) when participants were around 50 years old (N=7693). We repeated the analysis using a GRS of 109 BMI-associated variants that increased CVD risk factors (type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein) in addition to BMI. We then evaluated whether the effects of the BMI GRSs on CVD risk differed by birth cohort when participants were around 60 years old (N=5493). RESULTS: Compared with participants born before 1932 (mean age, 50.8 yrs [2.4]), those born after 1960 (mean age, 43.3 years [4.5]) had higher BMI (median, 25.4 [23.3-28.0] kg/m2 versus 26.9 [interquartile range, 23.7-30.6] kg/m2). The effect of the 941-variant BMI GRS on BMI and CVD risk was stronger in people who were born in later years (GRS-birth year interaction: P=0.0007 and P=0.04 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The significant GRS-birth year interactions indicate that common genetic variants have larger effects on middle-age BMI and CVD risk in people born more recently. These findings suggest that the increasingly obesogenic environment may amplify the impact of genetics on the risk of obesity and possibly its cardiovascular consequences.

More appendicular lean mass relative to body mass index is associated with lower incident diabetes in middle-aged adults in the CARDIA study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although lower lean mass is associated with greater diabetes prevalence in cross-sectional studies, prospective data specifically in middle-aged Black and White adults are lacking. Relative appendicular lean mass (ALM), such as ALM adjusted for body mass index (BMI), is important to consider since muscle mass is associated with overall body size. We investigated whether ALM/BMI is associated with incident type 2 diabetes in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study. METHODS AND RESULTS: 1893 middle-aged adults (55% women) were included. ALM was measured by DXA in 2005-06. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined in 2010-11 or 2015-16 as fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), 2-h glucose on OGTT ≥11.1 mmol/L (200 mg/dL) (2010-11 only), HbA1C ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) (2010-11 only), or glucose-lowering medications. Cox regression models with sex stratification were performed. In men and women, ALM/BMI was 1.07 ± 0.14 (mean ± SD) and 0.73 ± 0.12, respectively. Seventy men (8.2%) and 71 women (6.8%) developed type 2 diabetes. Per sex-specific SD higher ALM/BMI, unadjusted diabetes risk was lower by 21% in men [HR 0.79 (0.62-0.99), p = 0.04] and 29% in women [HR 0.71 (0.55-0.91), p = 0.008]. After adjusting for age, race, smoking, education, physical activity, and waist circumference, the association was no longer significant. Adjustment for waist circumference accounted for the attenuation in men. CONCLUSION: Although more appendicular lean mass relative to BMI is associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men and women over 10 years, its effect may be through other metabolic risk factors such as waist circumference, which is a correlate of abdominal fat mass.

Gestational Glucose Intolerance and Risk of Future Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnant individuals are universally screened for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Gestational glucose intolerance (GGI) (an abnormal initial GDM screening test without a GDM diagnosis) is not a recognized diabetes risk factor. We tested for an association between GGI and diabetes after pregnancy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals followed for prenatal and primary care. We defined GGI as an abnormal screening glucose-loading test result at ≥24 weeks' gestation with an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) that did not meet GDM criteria. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures and covariates to compare incident diabetes risk in individuals with GGI and normal glucose tolerance. RESULTS: Among 16,836 individuals, there were 20,359 pregnancies with normal glucose tolerance, 2,943 with GGI, and 909 with GDM. Over a median of 8.4 years of follow-up, 428 individuals developed diabetes. Individuals with GGI had increased diabetes risk compared to those with normal glucose tolerance in pregnancy (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.01 [95% CI 1.54-2.62], P < 0.001). Diabetes risk increased with the number of abnormal OGTT values (zero, aHR 1.54 [1.09-2.16], P = 0.01; one, aHR 2.97 [2.07-4.27], P < 0.001; GDM, aHR 8.26 [6.49-10.51], P < 0.001 for each compared with normal glucose tolerance). The fraction of cases of diabetes 10 years after delivery attributable to GGI and GDM was 8.5% and 28.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GGI confers an increased risk of future diabetes. Routinely available clinical data identify an unrecognized group who may benefit from enhanced diabetes screening and prevention.

Patient and provider perspectives on polygenic risk scores: implications for clinical reporting and utilization.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS), which offer information about genomic risk for common diseases, have been proposed for clinical implementation. The ways in which PRS information may influence a patient's health trajectory depend on how both the patient and their primary care provider (PCP) interpret and act on PRS information. We aimed to probe patient and PCP responses to PRS clinical reporting choices METHODS: Qualitative semi-structured interviews of both patients (N=25) and PCPs (N=21) exploring responses to mock PRS clinical reports of two different designs: binary and continuous representations of PRS. RESULTS: Many patients did not understand the numbers representing risk, with high numeracy patients being the exception. However, all the patients still understood a key takeaway that they should ask their PCP about actions to lower their disease risk. PCPs described a diverse range of heuristics they would use to interpret and act on PRS information. Three separate use cases for PRS emerged: to aid in gray-area clinical decision-making, to encourage patients to do what PCPs think patients should be doing anyway (such as exercising regularly), and to identify previously unrecognized high-risk patients. PCPs indicated that receiving "below average risk" information could be both beneficial and potentially harmful, depending on the use case. For "increased risk" patients, PCPs were favorable towards integrating PRS information into their practice, though some would only act in the presence of evidence-based guidelines. PCPs describe the report as more than a way to convey information, viewing it as something to structure the whole interaction with the patient. Both patients and PCPs preferred the continuous over the binary representation of PRS (23/25 and 17/21, respectively). We offer recommendations for the developers of PRS to consider for PRS clinical report design in the light of these patient and PCP viewpoints. CONCLUSIONS: PCPs saw PRS information as a natural extension of their current practice. The most pressing gap for PRS implementation is evidence for clinical utility. Careful clinical report design can help ensure that benefits are realized and harms are minimized.

A combined polygenic score of 21,293 rare and 22 common variants improves diabetes diagnosis based on hemoglobin A1C levels.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) combine the effects of common genetic variants1,2 to predict risk or treatment strategies for complex diseases3-7. Adding rare variation to PGSs has largely unknown benefits and is methodically challenging. Here, we developed a method for constructing rare variant PGSs and applied it to calculate genetically modified hemoglobin A1C thresholds for type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis7-10. The resultant rare variant PGS is highly polygenic (21,293 variants across 154 genes), depends on ultra-rare variants (72.7% observed in fewer than three people) and identifies significantly more undiagnosed T2D cases than expected by chance (odds ratio = 2.71; P = 1.51 × 10-6). A PGS combining common and rare variants is expected to identify 4.9 million misdiagnosed T2D cases in the United States-nearly 1.5-fold more than the common variant PGS alone. These results provide a method for constructing complex trait PGSs from rare variants and suggest that rare variants will augment common variants in precision medicine approaches for common disease.

A framework for detecting noncoding rare-variant associations of large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies.

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies have enabled analysis of noncoding rare-variant (RV) associations with complex human diseases and traits. Variant-set analysis is a powerful approach to study RV association. However, existing methods have limited ability in analyzing the noncoding genome. We propose a computationally efficient and robust noncoding RV association detection framework, STAARpipeline, to automatically annotate a whole-genome sequencing study and perform flexible noncoding RV association analysis, including gene-centric analysis and fixed window-based and dynamic window-based non-gene-centric analysis by incorporating variant functional annotations. In gene-centric analysis, STAARpipeline uses STAAR to group noncoding variants based on functional categories of genes and incorporate multiple functional annotations. In non-gene-centric analysis, STAARpipeline uses SCANG-STAAR to incorporate dynamic window sizes and multiple functional annotations. We apply STAARpipeline to identify noncoding RV sets associated with four lipid traits in 21,015 discovery samples from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program and replicate several of them in an additional 9,123 TOPMed samples. We also analyze five non-lipid TOPMed traits.

Leveraging family history in genetic association analyses of binary traits.

BACKGROUND: Considering relatives' health history in logistic regression for case-control genome-wide association studies (CC-GWAS) may provide new information that increases accuracy and power to detect disease associated genetic variants. We conducted simulations and analyzed type 2 diabetes (T2D) data from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to compare two methods, liability threshold model conditional on both case-control status and family history (LT-FH) and Fam-meta, which incorporate family history into CC-GWAS. RESULTS: In our simulation scenario of trait with modest T2D heritability (h2 = 0.28), variant minor allele frequency ranging from 1% to 50%, and 1% of phenotype variance explained by the genetic variants, Fam-meta had the highest overall power, while both methods incorporating family history were more powerful than CC-GWAS. All three methods had controlled type I error rates, while LT-FH was the most conservative with a lower-than-expected error rate. In addition, we observed a substantial increase in power of the two familial history methods compared to CC-GWAS when the prevalence of the phenotype increased with age. Furthermore, we showed that, when only the phenotypes of more distant relatives were available, Fam-meta still remained more powerful than CC-GWAS, confirming that leveraging disease history of both close and distant relatives can increase power of association analyses. Using FHS data, we confirmed the well-known association of TCF7L2 region with T2D at the genome-wide threshold of P-value < 5 × 10-8, and both familial history methods increased the significance of the region compared to CC-GWAS. We identified two loci at 5q35 (ADAMTS2) and 5q23 (PRR16), not previously reported for T2D using CC-GWAS and Fam-meta; both genes play a role in cardiovascular diseases. Additionally, CC-GWAS detected one more significant locus at 13q31 (GPC6) reported associated with T2D-related traits. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, LT-FH and Fam-meta had higher power than CC-GWAS in simulations, especially using phenotypes that were more prevalent in older age groups, and both methods detected known genetic variants with lower P-values in real data application, highlighting the benefits of including family history in genetic association studies.